We had weak confirmation that the correction is complete this week as stocks moved higher off of last Friday’s Hammer Candlestick. While the weekly chart formed a Bullish Engulfing pattern, it did so on weak volume. The financial market looks confused, not knowing if it wants to go up or go down. My thoughts are that we will probably ride this bounce back up to the 50 day MA on the major averages before heading south again to find support at the 200 day MA. To put it another way, I expect the market to stay in a trading range between the  200 day MA and the 50 day MA for a while.

There are many ways to trade in this environment, including the Iron Condor. By selling an option spread above and below the current market, you would profit if stocks continue in their current trading range.

For those of you more interested in investing in the stock market this correction has provided a good opportunity to buy in at lower prices.  One way to use options to invest in a market that is rising slowly is with the Bull Call Diagonal Spread. For example, with Technology stocks showing strong relative strength lately, you could buy the June QQQQ 43 Call and sell the March QQQQ 45 Call. That should leave you in good shape as long as the QQQQ stay in its trading range, and set you up to profit at a lower cost of entry should the QQQQ break through its 50 day MA after March expiration.

JD

In spite of some improvement in the January unemployment report, it looked like the stock market was headed south for the winter on Friday morning. Then just before 2PM, the Nasdaq bounced strongly off of support at the 2100 level. The other major Indexes followed suit and the stock market actually turned in a positive day. This was a turn around the likes of which we have not seen since the SP 500 lead the market by bouncing off of the 666 level on March 6th, 2009.

Quite often, this Hammer candlestick pattern turns out to be a good reversal signal. While this might have been a great opportunity for a Bull Put Spread or a Bull Call Spread, we need to see some confirmation early this week to conclude that this market correction is over. If we do not get that, you should be ready to use the bounce to implement some bearish strategies.

JD

Technology stocks in the Nasdaq lead the stock market out of the gate to start the new year off positively to more than make up for its year ending final hour fall. While stocks spent the rest of the week drifting slowly upward, it does not look like it will experience much more than a pull back to support levels as it marches forward once again.  It would not surprise me if the market returns to its normal mode of operation this year, with stocks picking up 10 to 12 percent.

Option players can take advantage of this with with some bullish spread strategies, like the bull call spread and the bull put spread.  You might want to consider options with at least 90 days to expiration.

JD

The 50 day MA held as support once again this week, but it did so on lower volume. The market has spent the last month going no where.  Often times this indicates that the market is digesting its gains before making another big move. The biggest problem I see though, is that its not really telling us which direction it wants to go.

A quiet market is a good time to try an option trade that benefits from time decay.  An Iron Condor or a Butterfly would fit the bill, but you may not get enough premium to make it worth while.

It looks like a lot of traders have already gone home for the holidays. It may be a good time to join them and take a break from trading the financial markets. That way we can all be fresh at the start of the New Year.

JD

Here’s a twist on the traditional Stock Option Collar that you might find is a less expensive way to protect your investments. Since the stock market has experienced an extreme fall, and an extreme bounce, there is a good probability that it will be trading in a tighter range over the next 6 months to a year. In addition, while the current slow down in upward market momentum is likely to provide a good opportunity to add to your long positions, the fact that the economy is not out of the woods means you should do so while exercising a bit of caution.

Given that scenario, the Put Spread Stock Collar is a way you can become a cautious stock market bull.  This trade is the combination of a Covered Call with a Bear Put Spread.

Here is an example with the SPY trading between 107 and 108:

Buy SPY at 107.50

Sell SPY June 120 Call

Buy SPY June 100 Put

Sell SPY June 90 Put

SPY Put Spread Stock Collar

You should be able to structure a trade similar to this for nothing more than the price of the SPY.  This trade does nothing for you besides giving you peace of mind if the stock market continues to trade within a normal 1 standard deviation range of where it is when you make your purchase. That is OK, because it provides some protection if the market falls quite a bit more than that, and allows you to participate in a normal level of growth.

The bad side: your growth is limited if the market sky rockets again and your protection is limited (but much better than nothing) if the market plummets again. Do not let that get in your way though, since there is a 95% chance that the market will stay within the effective range of this trade.

What do you think?

JD

When the stock market broke out 10 days ago we mentioned the fact that it did so with a lack of volume. In addition, stocks reached new highs in the face of indicators like momentum showing a strong bearish divergence. Tuesday’s big drop in stocks was on the heaviest volume we have seen in quite some time.  This not only confirms that the bulls have quit buying, but also signals that they are starting to take some profits after stocks have had their best 6 months since the first half of 1975.

I still think that a  Bear Call Spread would be a good way to trade this market environment. At some point, like maybe when the SP 500 reaches support at 975, you could convert that to an Iron Condor by adding a Bull Put Spread if it looks like we will be staying in a trading range. For those of you that want to protect your long stock positions, consider the Stock Option Collar if you do not want to sell your positions.

JD